The Mayans did not predict the apocalypse would happen in 2012.
Rather, 2012 is when the current cycle of the Mayan Long Count calendar concludes and a new period of creation begins.
So, in many political circles, as political parties and governments must, people will discuss and enact change, change that will forge new eras for many of these polities.
That change will revolve around one common theme – leadership.
Worldwide, leadership is needed to fill vacuums left by the events of this year.
Middle Eastern countries like Egypt and Libya will have entire new governments trying to feel their way with their new power to create a new and stable normalcy, lest their citizens be subject to more fear and chaos.
European leaders must balance confronting a debt crisis that threatens most of a continent with protecting the people of quite vulnerable countries – Greece, Italy, Spain – from greater harm. Failing to keep that balance would bring disaster.
The U.S. elects a president next year amid deadlock in Congress and an economy continuing, as in 2008, to burn in a dumpster. Barack Obama and his eventual Republican challenger must shape platforms that address the most urgent needs of Americans – jobs and sustainable public services.
We gave Stephen Harper’s Conservative government to a majority last May with the expectation of strong, capable economic stewardship. Next year, Harper must navigate the good ship Canada though a worldwide economic minefield while not beaching her on the shores of ideology.
The Bloc Quebecois will choose its leader Dec. 11. Daniel Paillė and Jean-Francois Fortin are the front-runners.The winner will face a choice between dialing down the party’s separatist rhetoric at risk of losing its base or keeping it high and risk permanent marginalization.
The NDP faces its own leadership race in March. Whichever of the nine candidates takes the leadership, likely former party president Brian Topp or one of MPs Thomas Mulcair or Peggy Nash, will be expected not only to continue building the party, but also provide the strong, competent opposition to Harper Canadians voted for.
This includes finding roles suited to the race’s losing contenders who comprise some of the best and the brightest of a mostly inexperienced caucus.
While the federal Liberals won’t have their leadership race until early 2013, candidates will start bringing themselves forward and leading a discussion on redefining what the one-time natural governing party stands for, of finding new poles to support the big tent – the old one, power, has rotted to nothing.
New Brunswick’s Liberals will select their new leader in October. At press time, two men have declared their candidacy: former party president and health minister Mike Murphy and Belledune mayor Nick Duivenvoorden.
Again, this race will turn into a long-overdue debate over the party’s values and the victor must reconcile with his opponents, lest the party’s tacit war with its grassroots continue.
Across the floor, 2012 will be now or never for David Alward’s quest to control the deficit and reform government. With raising the HST tantamount to political suicide, the PC premier will have to make unpopular cuts, raise unpopular taxes and stand firm on his decisions – all while making New Brunswickers feel a part of the process.
In May, voters in Fredericton – including you, should you stay in town through the spring – will pass its judgement on the quality of city leadership in the quadrennial municipal election.
Without doubt, politics in 2012 will be defined by leadership.
Here’s hoping it doesn’t lead us straight off a cliff.
