On Sunday, less than two weeks after being sworn in as the 24th prime minister of Canada, Mark Carney asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament, triggering a federal election.
The election is slated to take place on April 28, in just 37 days, the shortest amount of time that a federal campaign can last according to Canadian law.
With Carney as prime minister, the Liberal Party is riding a high after erasing an almost 25-point Conservative polling lead following Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
On Jan. 6, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asked Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to prorogue and therefore suspend Parliament. At the same time, he announced his intention to resign as Prime Minister and the leader of the Liberal Party.
Carney won the leadership race and was sworn in as prime minister on March 14
With Parliament scheduled to return to session today, March 24, Liberal Party member Drashtant Varma said Carney “doesn’t want to give the opposition parties a chance to come back and attack him.”
Last updated on March 23, projected polls from 338Canada now estimate the Liberal Party will have 39 per cent of the popular vote, the most among the parties in Canada.
“I know we need change, big change, positive change,” said Carney in front of the Rideau Hall on Sunday, where he announced the dissolution of Parliament.
“Negative slogans aren’t solutions, anger isn’t action, division isn’t strength. Negativity won’t win a trade war, negativity won’t pay the rent or the mortgage, negativity won’t bring down the price of groceries and negativity won’t make Canada strong.”
The Conservative Party had a projected 25 per cent lead in the polls the day before Trudeau’s resignation. They now sit at 37 per cent of the popular vote, 2 per cent less than the leading Liberals.
St. Thomas University political science professor Tom Bateman believes that the polling numbers are “a little bit soft.”
“He’s a fresh face and he’s kind of safe and calm and he’s not Mr. Trudeau. He hasn’t had any extended exposure to hard media criticism, his appearances have been very well orchestrated,” he said. “I think there’s room for things to change a little bit and he’ll probably come down to earth.”
“It’s going to be a very interesting campaign.”
Despite this, Bateman has been impressed with what he has seen from Carney thus far.
“Once Trudeau was gone and we understood the new challenges facing the country, Mr. Carney has been able to present himself as a very steady, knowledgeable, financially adept hand,” said Bateman.
He believes that Carney hopes to take advantage of the momentum he has built across the country over the course of his Liberal leadership campaign and since he has taken the reins of the party.
“The opposition is reeling a little bit and this honeymoon that Mr. Carney has experienced [was] an excellent time to pull the trigger for an election,” said Bateman. “Maybe some of that momentary voter advantage will continue through to [the] election.”
According to Varma, the “snowball effect” of “growth and momentum” that Carney has seen over the past few weeks has increased his confidence in the party heading into a federal election.
“I think the message that Mark Carney has been providing has resonated with a lot of folks right across the country,” he said.
Bateman says that Carney’s sudden popularity among Canadians and the threatened tariffs by United States President Donald Trump has made things more difficult for the Conservative Party.
“They do have to reset, things were really simple when it was Trudeau … this whole thing since Mr. Trump’s inauguration has changed the landscape drastically and it’s put the conservatives on the back foot,” he said.
Carney is known for his economic-based resume, previously working as the Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He has navigated both countries through difficult economic times, such as the 2008 financial crisis.
Trump has been threatening tariffs on Canada since his campaign leading up to his inauguration on Jan. 20.
Varma believes that the quick changes in polls will create a change in how the conservatives market the upcoming election.
“I imagine we’ll see some more ramped up attacks in them now and then, trying to spin different things in different ways,” he said. “That might cause some confusion and add to some uncertainty among uncertain voters.”
Voters’ main concern with a Carney led government would be his lack of experience as an elected official, according to Varma.
Carney has never been a Member of Parliament and has previously been an informal advisor to Trudeau during his time as prime minister.
Bateman predicts that election campaigning will be all about “sovereign independent Canada.”
“This kind of campaign dynamic at which the Liberals are very, very good at [makes] it a much more awkward thing for the conservatives,” he said.
“It will be close.”
