The big issue of the 2012 United States presidential election has been the economy. Romney has been trying to tell a story of decline of prosperity along with an expansion of government. Obama has been picking out signs of improvement in the American economy, while advocating prudent spending for the future. Debt, deficit, and spending took center stage for most voters, while side issues rallied others.
Generally the economy is a good indicator of a president or candidate’s chance at election. I think the unsteady state the U.S. is in does fairly well in explaining just how close this election actually is. Four years later, blaming Bush for the mess you paid some 700 million dollars to “inherit” does not seem to resonate in the same way it did in 2008.
That being said, many feel uneasy about Romney and his business ties. Despite how untrue most of the accusations laid against him are, they stick precisely because they fit the story of big business running big politics. Anyone who actually pays attention to money in politics will see the story is much more complex, but most voters do not do this, and resort to shortcuts instead.
That being said, I think there is little evidence to wholeheartedly support the Romney campaign’s view on economics. Economics on country scales is complicated. High-tax high-spending Germany is doing well, but high-tax high spending France right next door is struggling. Cutting taxes and spending can spur growth and revenue, and the most recent estimates of Canada’s corporate income tax revenue point to this phenomenon. However, revenues have been higher had the rates not changed. There are so many factors pointing in different directions that to say with confidence the Romney formula will work in United States is about as absurd as saying Obama or Bush deserves full credit or blame for the economy today.
As for how the election will turn out, I think an Obama victory is a safe bet. The question is whether Obama tops 300 delegates and by how much. If Romney holds Virginia and Florida, Obama’s delegate count will be 290. Though plausible, a Romney victory is a long shot. Romney needs to win all of what is in play, while Obama can afford to lose some states. Romney winning the popular vote is another slight possibility; he has momentum, just not in the right places in the right amount. The Senate will go Democrat, and the House Republican. This ensures more interesting politics ahead, and it will be important to see how Obama will maneuver around yet another Republican House.
One thing we all ought to remember in the happiness or unlikely bitterness after election night is the question of electoral partisanship. Insofar as one actually thinks the United States is doomed if their candidate loses is probably a good measure of how much more thought they ought to put into the election. Seeing as we are the educated elite, we ought to be more reasonable. There are Supreme Courts, State Governments and other political battlefields and checks on power. Candidates are also never as good or as bad as they promise or seem during an election period. These are the elections of the greatest country on Earth, but there are another 364 days a year in politics we ought not forget.
