There is no greater international hockey rivalry than when Canada goes up against the United States.
It has been 11 years since hockey fans have witnessed best-on-best hockey at the international level and it is living up to the hype.
The NHL’s newly created 4 Nations Faceoff has been a major success for the league. Many got their wish on Monday when Canada defeated Finland in regulation to put in place a finale hockey fans could only dream of.
Almost 15 years since Sidney Crosby scored the golden goal against the U.S. in 2010, the rivals are set to write another chapter in their illustrious history tonight.
These two teams started their preliminary game with three fights in the opening nine seconds, so don’t be surprised if tonight’s game is even feistier.
This may be the most geopolitically charged sporting event in North America since the turn of the century. With anthems being booed and politicians getting involved, this showdown is much more than a hockey game.
Jonas’ Picks
This game will likely be a strategic clinic.
With two of the best coaches in the NHL, Jon Cooper and Mike Sullivan, at the helm of each roster, this game is going to be extremely tight.
Scoring chances will be rare, there won’t be a lot of open ice. Every shot matters.
The Americans have proven themselves to be the best team in the tournament to this point, surrounding their only loss to Sweden on Monday with a depleted roster due to them resting some of their top talent.
The U.S. defeated Canada in their earlier tournament matchup 3-1, with a large part of that victory being their dominant physical presence.
It is notable that Charlie McAvoy, one of America’s best and most physical defensemen, has been ruled out of the final game of the tournament due to a shoulder injury.
Canada has the best higher-end talent, with Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and captain Sidney Crosby leading the way. They’ll need to be at the top of their games to penetrate a superbly sound American defence.
Connor Hellebuyck has been fantastic for the U.S. in the two games he has played for them. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner and the NHL’s top goaltender will almost certainly get the start on Thursday.
He has been largely untested thus far in the tournament, as the U.S. has done a fantastic job suppressing chances against them. Canada did not have many moments where you raised your arms in frustration asking yourself “How did they not score there?” in their last matchup.
That’s going to need to change.
They need to take advantage of every opportunity they’re able to get, especially considering they likely have the tournament’s weakest netminder, Jordan Binnington, between the pipes.
The last time he was in a scenario like this at the TD Garden in Boston was when he stumped the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals. If Binnington can find some of that magic from nearly six years ago, Canada has a real chance to pull this off.
Unfortunately, I have my doubts that will be the case.
My prediction – and expectation – going into this game is that America is going to take home their first win at a best-on-best tournament since the 1996 World Cup of Hockey.
I am hoping I am wrong, but all of the numbers and the eye test point to the U.S. being the far superior team at this tournament.
Final score: 4-2 U.S. with the game-winning goal coming from Jack Eichel, he’s due for one. Connor Hellebuyck wins tournament MVP.
Leos’ Picks
A part of Canada’s success will have to be the play of their gamebreakers.
The team has speed and skill splashed through all four forward lines and the three defense lines. Players like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Brad Marchand have the ability to break the game wide open, becoming difference-makers when they step on the ice.
To ensure success on Thursday, Canada’s big guns need to step up and strike early. Having their best players step up is something the team has consistently failed to do.
For instance, Mitch Marner, who is tied for fourth in NHL scoring, had one goal in three games in the preliminary round.
Canada did an effective job of this against Finland, as McDavid, MacKinnon and Brayden Point all scored early in the first period. The team rode the wave of momentum all the way to the end, narrowly squeaking out a 5-3 victory after a late push from the Finns.
An early Canadian barrage will send the Americans back on their heels, forcing the team to fall behind and work their way back into the contest.
Despite the latter arguments, I believe the game will ultimately come down to goaltending and who can solve their opponents’ keeper first.
Canadian goaltending has been shaky thus far in the tournament. St. Louis Blues netminder Jordan Binnington had started all three of Canada’s preliminary games, posting a below-average .892 save percentage.
His lacklustre performances have led fans to have a mini heart attack every time a shot comes his way.
Meanwhile, Connor Hellebuyck has been a difference-maker for the U.S.
The Winnipeg Jets keeper has been the best goalie at the 4 Nations. He sent away 45 of 46 shots in the preliminary round, finishing with a save percentage over .950.
Therefore, if Canada wants any chance of winning, they will have to solve Hellebuyck early. Solving him early will break his psyche, putting him at an emotional disadvantage.
If the Canadians do everything right, I see them winning 4-3, with Sidney Crosby being named the tournament MVP.
