After 15 months of war, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect as of Jan. 19.
However, people are hesitant to see this as a conclusion to the longstanding conflict.
“I think the Israelis have absolutely no intention of leaving Gaza,” said Shaun Narine, the chair of St. Thomas University’s political science department.
The agreement includes three stages, the first of which will last 42 days and focuses on the release of Israeli and Palestinian hostages. Over this time there is set to be a complete ceasefire.
So far, seven Israeli hostages have been released by Hamas and 290 Palestinian hostages have been freed by Israel as a part of the ceasefire agreement.
Throughout the ceasefire, 33 Israeli hostages will be released and the next group will be sent back to Israel on Feb. 1. Thousands of Palestinian hostages will be freed during these exchanges.
Stage two is scheduled to begin on Feb. 3 and will see the beginning of negotiations for a permanent ceasefire along with Israeli forces making a complete withdrawal from Gaza.
“I don’t think there’s any chance we’re going to get to the second phase,” said Narine. “The thing is, none of this has been solidified, right? It’s all about negotiations.”
The Gaza health ministry has reported that there have been around 46,000 Palestinian fatalities and over 10,000 missing individuals as a result of the conflict that began on Oct. 7, 2023 when Hamas launched an attack against Israel.
The Lancet estimates the numbers of direct deaths actually being between 60,000 to 70,000.
According to Oxfam, a global organization that fights inequality to end poverty and injustice, the war between Israel and Hamas is the worst ongoing violence in the world today.
Related: STU lecture series begins with lesson about war in Gaza
Nomaan X is an organizer with Fredericton Palestine Solidarity, a Fredericton-based group that advocates for Palestinian human rights through actions such as rallies and fundraisers.
His initial reaction to the ceasefire was of relief that the immediate assault had paused, even if it was temporary. However, he agrees with Narine about the reliability of this agreement.
“We are not too optimistic about the ceasefire agreement because Israel has constantly broken these kinds of agreements in the past.” said X. “Since the ceasefire went into effect, Israel has already shot people and conducted a full assault on the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank.”
Narine mentioned how the Israeli Netanyahu government has “sabotaged” previous attempts towards a ceasefire agreement, which he has been avoiding for “months and months.”
He said that the escalating pressure from the incoming Trump administration was “almost the only factor” for the ceasefire agreement being signed by Israel, calling the agreement a “PR stunt.”
“I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Trump has somehow reached a realization of the value of Palestinian life,” said Narine. “All of the people that he has who are advising him on Israel and Palestine are hardcore, long-established, far-right pro-Israel supporters.”
“He’s basically saying that he doesn’t want to start his presidency with a bloodbath and so they’re putting the bloodbath on hold,” he said.
X agrees with this sentiment, as he believes that the Trump administration took credit for the ceasefire due to various diplomatic reasons.
“That is not to say that they support Palestinian liberation. That’s never been on the table. It’s more about stopping it for now and in return, ‘we’ll see what we can do,’” said X.
He said that it’s still as important as ever for people to ensure that they are informed on what is going on in Gaza.
“There is really a big lack of education on the issue. People have very different ideas of what the Israel-Palestine situation is about,” said X.
“The bare minimum that you can do is educate yourself.”
